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英语阅读:中国制造2025的展望

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过去40年,中国经济年均增速达到9.5%左右,成为世界第二大经济体。去年,中国特色社会主义进入了一个新时代。关于新时代有很多的理解和解释,这里是我的一些观点。
 
 
第一,新时期的改革将不断推进。近几十年来,中国通过“双轨”体制进行渐进式改革,避免了中欧、东欧、前苏联等国家发生重大变革。正是在这一过程中,中国政府逐步扶持了一些规模庞大但已经落后的国有企业,以稳定经济,实现增长。
 
 
然而,中国也为其逐步转型付出了代价,这反映在某些市场扭曲上。过去,由于收入水平低、资金不足、技术落后,中国对一些行业进行了补贴,以确保它们的稳定运行。但现在情况不同了。在当前的经济发展阶段,中国必须进一步深化改革,以解决腐败和收入差距扩大等问题。因此,中国一直致力于进一步改革,让市场在资源配置中发挥决定性作用,最终消除市场扭曲。
 
 
政府已经采取了数百项相关措施来消除这种扭曲现象。不用说,这需要时间。即使政府的所有计划都得到全面落实,新的问题也会出现,结构性问题也会持续存在。因此,必须承认,中国将永远有改革。
 
 
二是创新潜力巨大,中国经济增长势头依然强劲。第四次工业革命所包括的新部门具有周期短的特点,因为新兴技术可以在12至13个月内开发出来。这类新技术的开发主要依靠人力资源,中国人口众多,人力资源供给巨大。此外,国家在新经济方面也表现出很强的竞争力。中国能否充分发挥自身潜力,取决于国际经济形势的发展,取决于中国自身能否进一步深化国内改革,取决于中国能否在技术创新和产业升级过程中解决问题。但在未来20年里,中国仍有可能实现年均8%的GDP增长。
 
 
从这个意义上说,“中国制造2025”计划就是为了帮助中国应对发展问题,这与德国的“工业4.0”、印度的“印度制造”和美国的“让美国再次伟大”类似。有了这样的产业举措,中国可以释放经济潜力,保持较高的经济增长率。即使它没有高达9%,它可能仍然保持在6%以上。
 
 
第三,中美经济互补性强,双边贸易应该是双赢的。2017年,中国人均GDP达到8640美元,仅占美国可变价格人均GDP的15%。中国的工业部门主要生产中低端、低附加值产品,而美国生产高附加值产品。双边贸易使中国能够向美国消费者提供低价商品和低成本的中间产品。与此同时,中国为来自美国的高附加值产品和服务提供了巨大的市场。
 
 
比较优势是国际贸易的基础。只要有比较优势,就能实现共赢。中美两国经济结构的互补性,使企业能够获得更高的利润,使消费者过上更好的生活。
 
 
最后但并非最不重要的是,中国需要对全球发展体系承担更多责任。作为世界第二大经济体和最大的商品贸易商,中国很可能在2025年左右成为高收入国家。与其他高收入国家一样,中国需要为世界做出贡献,帮助其他发展中国家实现增长和减贫。
 
二战后,高收入国家提供了超过3万亿美元的发展援助。但这些努力需要改善,因为贫困在世界各地仍然普遍存在。我始终认为,经济发展是一个结构性改革的过程。日本和亚洲四小龙等一些国家在这一过程中抓住了发展机遇,从农业国家转变为制造业大国。中国已经成为一个中等收入以上的国家,在不久的将来,它将成为一个高收入国家。


As China became the world's second-largest economy after growing at an annual average rate of about 9.5 percent over the past four decades, last year, socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era. There are many understandings and interpretations about the new era, and here are some of mine.

First, reform will always be in progress in the new era. In recent decades, China carried out progressive reforms through a dual-track system, which prevented the country from experiencing such significant changes as the ones in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. It was during this process that the Chinese government provided progressive support to some large but outdated State-owned industries to stabilize the economy and also achieve growth.

Nevertheless, China also paid a price for its gradual transition, which is reflected by certain market distortions. In the past, due to low income levels, insufficient capital and a lack of advanced technology, China subsidized some industries to ensure their stable operation. But things are different now. The current stage of economic development requires that the country must further deepen its reforms to address problems like corruption and widening income inequality. So China has been committed to further reforms to let the market play a decisive role in allocating resources and eventually eliminate the market distortions.

The government has already taken hundreds of relevant measures to eradicate such distortions. Needless to say, it takes time. Even if all the government's plans are fully implemented, new problems will emerge and structural problems will persist. Therefore, it must be recognized that there will always be reform in China.

Second, China's economic growth still has strong momentum, given its great innovation potential. The new sectors included in the Fourth Industrial Revolution are characterized by short cycles, as emerging technologies could be developed within 12 to 13 months. The development of such new technologies mainly depends on human resources, and China has a huge supply of human resources due to its large population. Moreover, the country also shows strong competitiveness in aspects of the new economy. Whether China realizes its full potential will depend on how the international economic situation develops, whether the nation itself can further deepen domestic reform and whether it can solve problems in the process of technological innovation and industrial upgrading. But in the coming 20 years, China still has the potential to reach an average of 8 percent GDP growth annually.

In this sense, the "Made in China 2025" initiative is exactly designed to help the country cope with its development problems, which is similar to Germany's "Industry 4.0," India's "Make in India" and the US' "Make America Great Again." With such an industrial initiative, China could unleash its economic potential and maintain a relatively high growth rate. Even if it is not as high as 9 percent, it may still stay above 6 percent.

Third, since the Chinese and the US economies are complementary, bilateral trade should be a win-win situation. In 2017, China's per capita GDP reached $8,640, accounting for only 15 percent of the US per capita GDP measured by variable prices. China's industrial sector mainly produces middle- and low-end, low value-added products, while the US produces high value-added ones. Bilateral trade allows China to supply low-priced goods and low-cost intermediates to US consumers. Meanwhile, China offers a huge market for high value-added products and services from the US.

Comparative advantage is the foundation of international trade. As long as there is comparative advantage, win-win outcomes could be achieved. The complementarities between the economic structures of China and the US enable companies to gain higher profits and consumers to have a better life.

Last but not the least, China needs to shoulder more responsibility for the global development system. As the world's second-largest economy and the biggest merchandise trader, China is very likely to become a high-income country by about 2025. Like other high-income countries, China needs to contribute to the world to help other developing countries in terms of growth and poverty alleviation.

After World War II, high-income countries provided more than $3 trillion in development aid. But those efforts need improvement because poverty remains widespread around the world. I always believe that economic development is a process of structural reform. Some countries like Japan and the four Asian Tigers seized development opportunities during the process, transitioning from agricultural countries to manufacturing powers. China has become an upper middle-income country, and it's expected to be a high-income country in the near future.

At that time, its labor-intensive industries will lose their comparative advantages and the work may move to other countries. According to my estimate, China may transfer 85 million manufacturing jobs out of the country. If other countries grasp this opportunity, they will gain great momentum in their manufacturing development.

Meanwhile, developing countries must resolve their bottlenecks, the most important of which is infrastructure. For this reason, China has proposed the Belt and Road initiative, which focuses on cooperation and connectivity.

Infrastructure investment is just a form of cooperation and China must comply with international standards in this regard, which requires good governance, transparency, high standards and cooperation between China and other countries and communities.

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