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特朗普这么搞下去,他的繁荣还能持久么?

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美国总统不是美国力量的缔造者。但从短期来看,事情会进展顺利。
 
常有比唐纳德·特朗普总统更是鸣叫的真理。
 
但在一个问题上,他大体上是正确的。
 
美国的经济状况良好。
 
企业信心高。
 
工作丰富。
 
上个月,非农业公司增加了228000名工人。
 
失业率为4.1%,是十年来的最低数字。
 
就业机会的增加吸引了更多的劳动年龄人口进入劳动力市场。
 
工资正在以实际的速度增长,其中一些最大的收益来自低薪工人。
 
当然,特朗普先生喜欢吃鸡蛋。
 
他声称,每一个好的工作报告,每一个新的高峰,标普500作为他自身的成功。
 
事实上,他继承的财产很幸运。
 
自他当选以来,市场上涨了25%,但自2009以来上涨了195%。
 
失业率从的10%峰值下降到了贝拉克·奥巴马的4.7%,然后又下降到了特朗普的第二。
 
他的政府说混合了放松管制和企业减税将刺激3% sustainedgdp增长,远远高于近几年平均2%。
 
随着经济接近充分就业,效率惊人的拾取需要完成。
 
但特朗普的指责夸大其词,太。
 
他们把消费者和老板的乐观视为感情,而不是物质。
 
他们警告说,股市估值过高,美国第一百零二个月的扩张很快就会动摇

America’s president is not the architect of American strength. But in the short term, things will go his way.

There is often more fakery than truth in a tweet from President Donald Trump.

But on one subject he is broadly right.

America’s economy is in good shape.

Business confidence is high.

Jobs are plentiful.

Last month non-farm companies added 228,000 workers to their payrolls.

The unemployment rate is 4.1%, the lowest figure for more than a decade.

The availability of jobs is drawing more of the working-age population into the labour force.

Wages are growing in real terms with some of the biggest gains going to low-paid workers.

Mr Trump over-eggs things, of course.

He claims each good jobs report and each new peak in the S&P 500 as his ownachievement.

In fact, he was lucky in his inheritance.

The market has risen by 25% since his election, but is up by 195% since 2009.

The unemployment rate fell from a peak of 10% to 4.7% under Barack Obama and then to 4.1% on Mr Trump’s watch.

His administration says that a mix of deregulation and corporate-tax cuts will spur sustainedGDP growth of 3%, well above the 2% average of recent years.

As the economy approaches full employment, an astonishing pickup in productivity would beneeded to accomplish that.

But Trump-bashers overstate their case, too.

They dismiss the optimism of consumers and bosses as sentiment, not substance.

They warn that the stockmarket is dangerously overvalued and that America’s expansion, which is in its 102nd month, must soon falter.

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